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Preston vs Bolton — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
Preview
15:00
Bolton
Bolton
3/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Deepdale
Big match
54%
Preston
model favours
54%24%21%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Preston54%
×Draw24%
Bolton21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.70
Bolton
0.97

Preston creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 13 away

creates per match

Preston
1.25
Bolton
0.77

allows per match

Preston
1.18
Bolton
2.15

finishing

Preston+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Preston or draw
79%
Preston or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
46%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
30%
Bolton wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
82%
Preston 2+ goals
51%
Preston 3+ goals
24%
Bolton 1+ goals
62%
Bolton 2+ goals
25%
Bolton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
72%
Bolton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.25 + Bolton defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bolton attack 0.77 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Preston scores more
54%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
21%

Preston at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Preston
Direct / counter-attacking
Bolton
Balanced
45%Possession46%
71%Pass accuracyBiggest gap67%
10.4Shots10.9
1.06xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PrestonBolton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Preston
1
Draws
2
Bolton
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
0–20–12–12–23–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Preston
WLWL
Bolton
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Preston host Bolton

March 6, 2027: Preston take on Bolton in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Preston host Bolton at Deepdale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.