Bolton 1–2 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Bolton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Preston

C. Donaldson 90'

T. Barkhuizen 82'

A. Browne 40'

2/9/2019

Championship · Round 31University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolton36%

×Draw26%

Preston39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Bolton

1.33

Preston

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 60 away

1.14

creates per match

1.03

1.76

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bolton

1.14

Preston

1.03

allows per match

Bolton

1.76

Preston

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

61%

Bolton or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

64%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

16%

Preston wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

74%

Bolton 2+ goals

38%

Bolton 3+ goals

15%

Preston 1+ goals

75%

Preston 2+ goals

41%

Preston 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

48%

Preston (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.14 + Preston defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Preston attack 1.03 + Bolton defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bolton scores more

36%

level

26%

Preston scores more

39%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Browne

Preston · M

8.1

Match Events

23'

J. Vela← L. Connell

40'

A. Browne↳ T. Barkhuizen

60'

Josh Magennis

62'

C. Donaldson← J. Grounds

77'

J. Pritchard← C. Noone

77'

L. Nmecha← P. Gallagher

82'

T. Barkhuizen↳ S. Maguire

85'

Josh Vela

87'

R. Ledson← B. Pearson

90'

D. Johnson← A. Browne

90'

C. Donaldson↳ C. Connolly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonPreston

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots16

4Corners10

13Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target7

3Off Target6

1Blocked3

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

315Total Passes487

191Accurate Passes365

61%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls5

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0