Preston 0–0 Bolton: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

10/31/2015

Championship · Round 14Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Preston49%

×Draw26%

Bolton25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

Preston

1.48

Bolton

0.98

Preston creates 51% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 53 away

1.29

creates per match

0.75

1.22

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Preston

1.29

Bolton

0.75

allows per match

Preston

1.22

Bolton

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

75%

Preston or Bolton

74%

Draw or Bolton

51%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

24%

Bolton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

77%

Preston 2+ goals

43%

Preston 3+ goals

19%

Bolton 1+ goals

62%

Bolton 2+ goals

26%

Bolton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

66%

Bolton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Bolton defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bolton attack 0.75 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Preston scores more

49%

level

26%

Bolton scores more

25%

Preston at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

D. Wheater

Bolton · D

7.6

Match Events

25'

Calum Woods

31'

Darren Pratley

62'

J. Hugill← E. Doyle

74'

G. Madine← Shola Ameobi

80'

N. Danns← J. Spearing

81'

N. Kilkenny← A. Browne

81'

P. Huntington← M. Vermijl

83'

F. Pisano← Derik Osede

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonBolton

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots8

9Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target2

2Off Target5

5Blocked1

3Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

364Total Passes362

259Accurate Passes253

71%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4