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Preston vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
Preview
19:45
Birmingham
Birmingham
2/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32Deepdale
39%
Birmingham
model favours
30%31%39%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Preston30%
×Draw31%
Birmingham39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
0.90
Birmingham
1.06

Birmingham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Preston
0.86
Birmingham
0.92

allows per match

Preston
1.21
Birmingham
0.94

finishing

Preston+0.21scores more
Birmingham-0.52scores less

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Preston or draw
61%
Preston or Birmingham
69%
Draw or Birmingham
70%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
10%
Birmingham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
59%
Preston 2+ goals
23%
Preston 3+ goals
6%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
29%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
44%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 15 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.86 + Birmingham defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Birmingham attack 0.92 + Preston defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
30%
level
31%
Birmingham scores more
39%

Birmingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Birmingham fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Preston
Balanced
Birmingham
Balanced
46%Possession47%
71%Pass accuracy72%
10.1Shots11.1
1.00xGBiggest gap1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PrestonBirmingham

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Preston
WLWL
Birmingham
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preston face Birmingham (Championship)

Championship returns with Preston hosting Birmingham. Match starts February 16, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Preston host Birmingham at Deepdale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.