Birmingham 1–2 Preston: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Preston

L. Jutkiewicz 83'

A. Browne 15'

R. Ledson 10'

1/21/2023

Championship · Round 28St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Birmingham50%

×Draw25%

Preston25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.05

Birmingham

1.61

Preston

1.05

Birmingham creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 37 away

1.64

creates per match

1.01

1.09

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Birmingham

1.64

Preston

1.01

allows per match

Birmingham

1.09

Preston

1.58

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.14scores less

Preston+0.04on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

75%

Birmingham or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

50%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

26%

Preston wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

80%

Birmingham 2+ goals

48%

Birmingham 3+ goals

22%

Preston 1+ goals

65%

Preston 2+ goals

28%

Preston 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

67%

Preston (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.58 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.64 + Preston defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Preston attack 1.01 + Birmingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Birmingham scores more

50%

level

25%

Preston scores more

25%

Birmingham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Lindsay

Preston · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

15'

32'

45+1'

45'

62'

62'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Chong

62'

J. Bacuna← H. Mejbri

69'

C. Evans← L. Delap

79'

Juninho Bacuna

81'

T. Parrott← T. Cannon

83'

L. Jutkiewicz↳ M. Colin

88'

J. Graham← M. Colin

88'

D. Johnson← B. Woodburn

90+1'

Lukas Jutkiewicz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamPreston

Overview

66%Possession34%

10Total Shots8

5Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target4

3Off Target2

3Blocked2

9Inside Box4

1Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

457Total Passes246

339Accurate Passes128

74%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3