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Preston vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
M. Colin 16'
9/3/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Preston40%
×Draw28%
Birmingham32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.25
Birmingham
1.07

Preston creates 17% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 33 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Birmingham
0.96

allows per match

Preston
1.18
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

Preston+0.06on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
68%
Preston or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
60%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
36%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
66%
Birmingham 2+ goals
29%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
56%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 61 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Birmingham attack 0.96 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston scores more
40%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
32%

Preston at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. GrahamBirminghamBirmingham · M
7.9

Match Events

16'
M. Colin↳ J. Graham
57'
J. James← T. Chong
61'
Álvaro Fernández← B. Potts
65'
Marc Roberts
69'
Scott Hogan
73'
C. Evans← A. Browne
73'
G. Hall← K. Bielik
73'
L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney
81'
M. O'Neil← B. Whiteman
82'
D. Johnson← A. McCann
82'
R. Ledson← T. Parrott
83'
Ched Evans
86'
J. Bellingham← J. Bacuna
86'
H. Mejbri← S. Hogan
90+5'
Jordan James

Possession

63%Preston

Shots

10Preston

Pass accuracy

54%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBirmingham
Overview
63%Possession37%
10Total Shots8
4Corners6
14Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots8
3On Target3
4Off Target4
3Blocked1
6Inside Box8
4Outside Box0
Passing
63%Possession37%
474Total Passes277
363Accurate Passes181
77%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Preston vs Birmingham

Birmingham beat Preston 1-0 in Championship on September 3, 2022.

Goals: M. Colin (16').

Preston controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.