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Preston vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
J. Stockley 24'
G. Gardner 85'
R. McGree 2'
10/31/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Preston41%
×Draw28%
Birmingham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.25
Birmingham
1.05

Preston creates 19% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Birmingham
0.94

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Birmingham
1.35

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Preston or draw
69%
Preston or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
59%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
36%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
28%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
57%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more
41%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
31%

Preston at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
San JoséBirminghamBirmingham · D
7.6

Match Events

2'
R. McGree↳ L. Jutkiewicz
24'
J. Stockley
57'
Jérémie Bela← J. Leko
62'
R. Ledson← P. Gallagher
65'
J. Rafferty← D. Fisher
76'
E. Riis← J. Stockley
84'
G. Gardner← R. McGree
85'
G. Gardner↳ San José
86'
M. Colin← J. Cogley
87'
Daniel Johnson

Possession

59%Preston

Shots

11Preston

Pass accuracy

54%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBirmingham
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots19
4Corners4
17Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots19
6On Target6
4Off Target7
1Blocked6
6Inside Box13
5Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
468Total Passes312
359Accurate Passes206
77%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Preston vs Birmingham

Birmingham beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on October 31, 2020.

Goals: R. McGree (2'), J. Stockley (24'), G. Gardner (85').

Preston controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 19.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.