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Preston vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
B. Potts 87'
P. Bauer 43'
7/18/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Preston41%
×Draw28%
Birmingham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.25
Birmingham
1.05

Preston creates 19% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Birmingham
0.94

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Birmingham
1.35

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Preston or draw
69%
Preston or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
59%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
36%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
28%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
57%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more
41%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
31%

Preston at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
P. BauerPrestonPreston · D
8.0

Match Events

21'
Josh Harrop
28'
Ivan Šunjić
43'
P. Bauer↳ P. Gallagher
52'
Paul Gallagher
61'
Jérémie Bela← I. Šunjić
67'
Jude Bellingham
71'
C. Boyd Munce← D. Crowley
77'
S. Maguire← J. Harrop
78'
T. Barkhuizen← D. Johnson
83'
J. Reid← S. Hogan
87'
B. Potts

Possession

67%Preston

Shots

14Preston

Pass accuracy

59%Preston

Statistics

PrestonBirmingham
Overview
67%Possession33%
14Total Shots11
5Corners7
11Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots11
7On Target2
5Off Target4
2Blocked5
9Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
67%Possession33%
572Total Passes270
464Accurate Passes155
81%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs Birmingham

Preston beat Birmingham 2-0 in Championship on July 18, 2020.

Goals: P. Bauer (43'), B. Potts (87').

Preston controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.