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Preston vs Barnsley — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
12/11/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Preston45%
×Draw27%
Barnsley28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.42
Barnsley
1.07

Preston creates 33% more chances

Season form · 184 home / 76 away

creates per match

Preston
1.29
Barnsley
0.93

allows per match

Preston
1.22
Barnsley
1.54

finishing

Preston+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw
72%
Preston or Barnsley
73%
Draw or Barnsley
55%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
22%
Barnsley wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
76%
Preston 2+ goals
41%
Preston 3+ goals
17%
Barnsley 1+ goals
66%
Barnsley 2+ goals
29%
Barnsley 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
61%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 184 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston scores more
45%
level
27%
Barnsley scores more
28%

Preston at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preston vs Barnsley

Preston beat Barnsley 2-1 in Championship on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.