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Preston Lions vs Western United II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
FT
2 – 2
Western United II
Western United II
6/9/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 17B.T. Connor Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Preston Lions40%
×Draw22%
Western United II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.81
Western United II
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 49 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Western United II
2.14

allows per match

Preston Lions
1.42
Western United II
2.00

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Western United II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Western United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
62%
Preston Lions or Western United II
78%
Draw or Western United II
60%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
21%
Western United II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
84%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
54%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
27%
Western United II 1+ goals
83%
Western United II 2+ goals
53%
Western United II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
51%
Western United II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Western United II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Western United II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Western United II attack 2.14 + Preston Lions defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston Lions scores more
40%
level
22%
Western United II scores more
38%

Preston Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preston Lions vs Western United II

Preston Lions and Western United II drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at B.T. Connor Reserve in Melbourne.