Preston Lions 1–2 Pascoe Vale: Result & Stats

Preston Lions

FT

1 – 2

Pascoe Vale

2/17/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 1B.T. Connor Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Preston Lions39%

×Draw24%

Pascoe Vale38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preston LionsExpected goals in this matchPascoe Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.58

Preston Lions

1.60

Pascoe Vale

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

1.62

creates per match

1.74

1.42

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Preston Lions

1.62

Pascoe Vale

1.74

allows per match

Preston Lions

1.42

Pascoe Vale

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Pascoe Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw

62%

Preston Lions or Pascoe Vale

76%

Draw or Pascoe Vale

61%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+

19%

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals

80%

Preston Lions 2+ goals

47%

Preston Lions 3+ goals

22%

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

79%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

47%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)

51%

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Preston Lions defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston Lions scores more

39%

level

24%

Pascoe Vale scores more

38%

Preston Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff