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Preston Lions vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
FT
2 – 0
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
4/7/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 8B.T. Connor Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Preston Lions40%
×Draw25%
Moreland Zebras36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.52
Moreland Zebras
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Preston Lions
1.42
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
64%
Preston Lions or Moreland Zebras
75%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
60%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
19%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
78%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
45%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
20%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
76%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
42%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
53%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Preston Lions defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston Lions scores more
40%
level
25%
Moreland Zebras scores more
36%

Preston Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preston Lions vs Moreland Zebras

Preston Lions beat Moreland Zebras 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at B.T. Connor Reserve in Melbourne.