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Preston Lions vs Dandenong Thunder — Victoria NPL 2026

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
8/23/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26Genis Steel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Preston Lions51%
×Draw24%
Dandenong Thunder26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.73
Dandenong Thunder
1.16

Preston Lions creates 49% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 86 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Dandenong Thunder
1.45

allows per match

Preston Lions
0.86
Dandenong Thunder
1.83

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Dandenong Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
74%
Preston Lions or Dandenong Thunder
76%
Draw or Dandenong Thunder
49%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
27%
Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
82%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
52%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
25%
Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
69%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
32%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
66%
Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.83 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.45 + Preston Lions defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Preston Lions scores more
51%
level
24%
Dandenong Thunder scores more
26%

Preston Lions at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Preston Lions 2–0 Dandenong Thunder

Preston Lions beat Dandenong Thunder 2-0 in Victoria NPL on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Genis Steel Stadium in Melbourne.