Preston Lions 1–2 Bulleen Lions: Result & Stats

Preston Lions

FT

1 – 2

Bulleen Lions

7/28/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 24B.T. Connor Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Preston Lions45%

×Draw24%

Bulleen Lions31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preston LionsExpected goals in this matchBulleen Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.33

Preston Lions

1.66

Bulleen Lions

1.33

Preston Lions creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

1.62

creates per match

1.24

1.42

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Preston Lions

1.62

Bulleen Lions

1.24

allows per match

Preston Lions

1.42

Bulleen Lions

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Bulleen Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw

69%

Preston Lions or Bulleen Lions

76%

Draw or Bulleen Lions

55%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+

23%

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals

81%

Preston Lions 2+ goals

49%

Preston Lions 3+ goals

23%

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals

74%

Bulleen Lions 2+ goals

38%

Bulleen Lions 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)

59%

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Preston Lions defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston Lions scores more

45%

level

24%

Bulleen Lions scores more

31%

Preston Lions at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff