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Preston Athletic vs Newton Stewart — FA Cup 2019

Preston Athletic
Preston Athletic
FT
0 – 1
Newton Stewart
Newton Stewart
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundPennypit Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Preston Athletic64%
×Draw19%
Newton Stewart17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Athletic
2.30
Newton Stewart
1.10

Preston Athletic creates 109% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Preston Athletic
1.40
Newton Stewart
0.60

allows per match

Preston Athletic
1.60
Newton Stewart
3.20

finishing

Preston Athletic+0.00on par
Newton Stewart+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Athletic ↓

Newton Stewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Preston Athletic or draw
83%
Preston Athletic or Newton Stewart
81%
Draw or Newton Stewart
36%

Winning margin

Preston Athletic wins by 2+
41%
Newton Stewart wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Preston Athletic 1+ goals
90%
Preston Athletic 2+ goals
67%
Preston Athletic 3+ goals
40%
Newton Stewart 1+ goals
67%
Newton Stewart 2+ goals
30%
Newton Stewart 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Preston Athletic (draw refunded)
79%
Newton Stewart (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Newton Stewart away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Athletic attack 1.40 + Newton Stewart defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.30

Newton Stewart attack 0.60 + Preston Athletic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Preston Athletic scores more
64%
level
19%
Newton Stewart scores more
17%

Preston Athletic at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Preston Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Preston Athletic 0–1 Newton Stewart

Newton Stewart beat Preston Athletic 1-0 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Pennypit Park in Prestonpans.