Preston Athletic 2–3 Irvine Meadow: Result & Stats

Preston Athletic

2 – 3

Irvine Meadow

8/31/2024

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundPennypit Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preston Athletic34%

×Draw22%

Irvine Meadow44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preston AthleticExpected goals in this matchIrvine Meadow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.97

Preston Athletic

1.70

Irvine Meadow

1.97

Irvine Meadow creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

2.33

1.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Preston Athletic

1.40

Irvine Meadow

2.33

allows per match

Preston Athletic

1.60

Irvine Meadow

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston Athletic+0.00on par

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Athletic ↓

Irvine Meadow →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Preston Athletic or draw

56%

Preston Athletic or Irvine Meadow

78%

Draw or Irvine Meadow

66%

Winning margin

Preston Athletic wins by 2+

17%

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Preston Athletic 1+ goals

82%

Preston Athletic 2+ goals

51%

Preston Athletic 3+ goals

24%

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals

86%

Irvine Meadow 2+ goals

58%

Irvine Meadow 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Preston Athletic (draw refunded)

43%

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Preston Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Irvine Meadow away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Preston Athletic attack 1.40 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Irvine Meadow attack 2.33 + Preston Athletic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preston Athletic scores more

34%

level

22%

Irvine Meadow scores more

44%

Irvine Meadow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Irvine Meadow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff