Preston Athletic 3–2 Hawick Royal Albert

Preston Athletic

3 – 2

Hawick Royal Albert

12/16/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundPennypit Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preston Athletic54%

×Draw21%

Hawick Royal Albert24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preston AthleticExpected goals in this matchHawick Royal Albert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.30

Preston Athletic

2.04

Hawick Royal Albert

1.30

Preston Athletic creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Preston Athletic

1.40

Hawick Royal Albert

1.00

allows per match

Preston Athletic

1.60

Hawick Royal Albert

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston Athletic+0.00on par

Hawick Royal Albert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Athletic ↓

Hawick Royal Albert →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Preston Athletic or draw

76%

Preston Athletic or Hawick Royal Albert

79%

Draw or Hawick Royal Albert

46%

Winning margin

Preston Athletic wins by 2+

32%

Hawick Royal Albert wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Preston Athletic 1+ goals

87%

Preston Athletic 2+ goals

60%

Preston Athletic 3+ goals

33%

Hawick Royal Albert 1+ goals

73%

Hawick Royal Albert 2+ goals

37%

Hawick Royal Albert 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston Athletic (draw refunded)

69%

Hawick Royal Albert (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Preston Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Hawick Royal Albert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Preston Athletic attack 1.40 + Hawick Royal Albert defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hawick Royal Albert attack 1.00 + Preston Athletic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Preston Athletic scores more

54%

level

21%

Hawick Royal Albert scores more

24%

Preston Athletic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Preston Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff