Preston Athletic 0–0 Dundonald Bluebell

Preston Athletic

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dundonald Bluebell

9/2/2023

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundPennypit Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preston Athletic66%

×Draw17%

Dundonald Bluebell18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preston AthleticExpected goals in this matchDundonald Bluebell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.47

Preston Athletic

2.87

Dundonald Bluebell

1.47

Preston Athletic creates 95% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.33

1.60

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Preston Athletic

1.40

Dundonald Bluebell

1.33

allows per match

Preston Athletic

1.60

Dundonald Bluebell

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston Athletic+0.00on par

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Athletic ↓

Dundonald Bluebell →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Preston Athletic or draw

82%

Preston Athletic or Dundonald Bluebell

83%

Draw or Dundonald Bluebell

34%

Winning margin

Preston Athletic wins by 2+

45%

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+

Team goals

Preston Athletic 1+ goals

94%

Preston Athletic 2+ goals

77%

Preston Athletic 3+ goals

53%

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals

77%

Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals

43%

Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Preston Athletic (draw refunded)

79%

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Preston Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Dundonald Bluebell away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Preston Athletic attack 1.40 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.87

Dundonald Bluebell attack 1.33 + Preston Athletic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Preston Athletic scores more

66%

level

17%

Dundonald Bluebell scores more

18%

Preston Athletic at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Preston Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff