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Přeštice vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
PST
15:00
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
5/17/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 26Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Přeštice75%
×Draw16%
Sokol Čížová9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.35
Sokol Čížová
0.65

Přeštice creates 262% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 7 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
91%
Přeštice or Sokol Čížová
84%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
25%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
52%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
90%
Přeštice 2+ goals
68%
Přeštice 3+ goals
41%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
48%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
14%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
90%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Přeštice scores more
75%
level
16%
Sokol Čížová scores more
9%

Přeštice at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice face Sokol Čížová (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Přeštice hosting Sokol Čížová. Match starts May 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Přeštice host Sokol Čížová at Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.