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Přeštice vs Písek — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
CANC
13:00
Písek
Písek
11/9/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14Stadion FC Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Přeštice52%
×Draw21%
Písek26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.08
Písek
1.43

Přeštice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Písek
1.36

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Písek
1.90

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Písek+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Písek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
74%
Přeštice or Písek
79%
Draw or Písek
48%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
31%
Písek wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
87%
Přeštice 2+ goals
61%
Přeštice 3+ goals
34%
Písek 1+ goals
76%
Písek 2+ goals
42%
Písek 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
66%
Písek (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Písek away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Písek defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.08

Písek attack 1.36 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Přeštice scores more
52%
level
21%
Písek scores more
26%

Přeštice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice face Písek (3. liga - CFL A)

3. liga - CFL A returns with Přeštice hosting Písek. Match starts November 9, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Přeštice host Písek at Stadion FC Viktoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.