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Přeštice vs Petřín Plzeň — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
2 – 1
Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
9/14/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 6Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice60%
×Draw20%
Petřín Plzeň21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.33
Petřín Plzeň
1.32

Přeštice creates 77% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 55 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Petřín Plzeň
2.05

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Petřín Plzeň
1.67

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Petřín Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
79%
Přeštice or Petřín Plzeň
80%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň
40%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
38%
Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
90%
Přeštice 2+ goals
67%
Přeštice 3+ goals
41%
Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
73%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
38%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
74%
Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Přeštice scores more
60%
level
20%
Petřín Plzeň scores more
21%

Přeštice at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Přeštice 2–1 Petřín Plzeň

Přeštice beat Petřín Plzeň 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice).