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Petřín Plzeň vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Přeštice
Přeštice
4/15/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 21Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Petřín Plzeň30%
×Draw21%
Přeštice49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
1.67
Přeštice
2.15

Přeštice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 23 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
51%
Petřín Plzeň or Přeštice
79%
Draw or Přeštice
70%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
15%
Přeštice wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
81%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
50%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
23%
Přeštice 1+ goals
88%
Přeštice 2+ goals
63%
Přeštice 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
38%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.67

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
30%
level
21%
Přeštice scores more
49%

Přeštice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petřín Plzeň vs Přeštice

Přeštice beat Petřín Plzeň 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň in Plzeň.