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Přeštice vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
CANC
14:00
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
3/20/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 16Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice71%
×Draw16%
Mariánské Lázně13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.62
Mariánské Lázně
1.04

Přeštice creates 152% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 55 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
87%
Přeštice or Mariánské Lázně
84%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
29%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
49%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
93%
Přeštice 2+ goals
73%
Přeštice 3+ goals
48%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
65%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
28%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
84%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.62

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Přeštice scores more
71%
level
16%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
13%

Přeštice at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice vs Mariánské Lázně — Match Preview

Přeštice face Mariánské Lázně on March 20, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Přeštice host Mariánské Lázně at Stadion Přeštice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.