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Přeštice vs Králův Dvůr — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
3/11/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 17TJ Přeštice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Přeštice55%
×Draw21%
Králův Dvůr24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.12
Králův Dvůr
1.33

Přeštice creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 70 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Králův Dvůr
1.16

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Králův Dvůr
1.97

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Králův Dvůr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
76%
Přeštice or Králův Dvůr
79%
Draw or Králův Dvůr
45%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
33%
Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
88%
Přeštice 2+ goals
62%
Přeštice 3+ goals
35%
Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
74%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
38%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
70%
Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Králův Dvůr away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.97 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.12

Králův Dvůr attack 1.16 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Přeštice scores more
55%
level
21%
Králův Dvůr scores more
24%

Přeštice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Přeštice 1–2 Králův Dvůr

Králův Dvůr beat Přeštice 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at TJ Přeštice UMT in Přeštice.