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Přeštice vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
7 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
10/12/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 10Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice76%
×Draw14%
Jindřichův Hradec9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.75
Jindřichův Hradec
0.86

Přeštice creates 220% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 56 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
91%
Přeštice or Jindřichův Hradec
86%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
24%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
55%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
93%
Přeštice 2+ goals
75%
Přeštice 3+ goals
51%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
58%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
21%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
89%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Přeštice scores more
76%
level
14%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
9%

Přeštice at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice 7 – 0 Jindřichův Hradec

Přeštice beat Jindřichův Hradec 7-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice).