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Přeštice vs Hořovicko — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
4 – 0
Hořovicko
Hořovicko
4/9/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 20Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice71%
×Draw17%
Hořovicko12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.46
Hořovicko
0.93

Přeštice creates 165% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 86 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Hořovicko
1.27

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Hořovicko
1.93

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Hořovicko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
88%
Přeštice or Hořovicko
83%
Draw or Hořovicko
29%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
48%
Hořovicko wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
91%
Přeštice 2+ goals
70%
Přeštice 3+ goals
44%
Hořovicko 1+ goals
61%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
24%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
85%
Hořovicko (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.46

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Přeštice scores more
71%
level
17%
Hořovicko scores more
12%

Přeštice at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Přeštice vs Hořovicko

Přeštice beat Hořovicko 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.