Přeštice 7–1 Doubravka: Result & Stats

Přeštice

FT

7 – 1

Doubravka

9/28/2019

4. liga - Divizie A · Round 8Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice69%

×Draw18%

Doubravka13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PřešticeExpected goals in this matchDoubravka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.93

Přeštice

2.38

Doubravka

0.93

Přeštice creates 156% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

3.00

creates per match

1.27

0.59

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Přeštice

3.00

Doubravka

1.27

allows per match

Přeštice

0.59

Doubravka

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par

Doubravka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Doubravka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw

87%

Přeštice or Doubravka

82%

Draw or Doubravka

31%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+

46%

Doubravka wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals

91%

Přeštice 2+ goals

68%

Přeštice 3+ goals

42%

Doubravka 1+ goals

61%

Doubravka 2+ goals

24%

Doubravka 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)

84%

Doubravka (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Doubravka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Doubravka defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Doubravka attack 1.27 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Přeštice scores more

69%

level

18%

Doubravka scores more

13%

Přeštice at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff