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Přeštice vs Chomutov — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
CANC
15:00
Chomutov
Chomutov
9/14/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 6Stadion FC Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Přeštice59%
×Draw20%
Chomutov21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.17
Chomutov
1.22

Přeštice creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Chomutov
0.93

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Chomutov
2.07

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Chomutov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Chomutov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
79%
Přeštice or Chomutov
80%
Draw or Chomutov
41%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
36%
Chomutov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
89%
Přeštice 2+ goals
64%
Přeštice 3+ goals
36%
Chomutov 1+ goals
70%
Chomutov 2+ goals
34%
Chomutov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
74%
Chomutov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Chomutov away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Chomutov defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.17

Chomutov attack 0.93 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Přeštice scores more
59%
level
20%
Chomutov scores more
21%

Přeštice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice vs Chomutov — Match Preview

Přeštice face Chomutov on September 14, 2024 in this 3. liga - CFL A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Přeštice host Chomutov at Stadion FC Viktoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.