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Presidente Prudente U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Presidente Prudente U20
Presidente Prudente U20
FT
1 – 3
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Paulo Constantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Presidente Prudente U2029%
×Draw26%
Gremio Prudente U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Presidente Prudente U20
1.12
Gremio Prudente U20
1.49

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Presidente Prudente U20
1.00
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Presidente Prudente U20
1.60
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Presidente Prudente U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Presidente Prudente U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Presidente Prudente U20 or draw
54%
Presidente Prudente U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
74%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
71%

Winning margin

Presidente Prudente U20 wins by 2+
11%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Presidente Prudente U20 1+ goals
67%
Presidente Prudente U20 2+ goals
31%
Presidente Prudente U20 3+ goals
10%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
77%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
44%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Presidente Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
38%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Presidente Prudente U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Presidente Prudente U20 attack 1.00 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Presidente Prudente U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Presidente Prudente U20 scores more
29%
level
26%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
46%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Presidente Prudente U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20

Gremio Prudente U20 beat Presidente Prudente U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Paulo Constantino in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo.