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Přepeře vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Přepeře
Přepeře
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
3/25/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 19Hřiště FK Přepeře

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Přepeře49%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přepeře
1.82
Sokol Živanice
1.31

Přepeře creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 64 away

creates per match

Přepeře
1.76
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Přepeře
1.49
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Přepeře+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přepeře ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Přepeře or draw
72%
Přepeře or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
51%

Winning margin

Přepeře wins by 2+
27%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Přepeře 1+ goals
84%
Přepeře 2+ goals
54%
Přepeře 3+ goals
27%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
73%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
38%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Přepeře (draw refunded)
64%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přepeře at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přepeře attack 1.76 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Přepeře defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Přepeře scores more
49%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
28%

Přepeře at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Přepeře will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Přepeře vs Sokol Živanice

Přepeře beat Sokol Živanice 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Přepeře in Přepeře.