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Pregarten vs Wohnbau Dietach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pregarten
Pregarten
FT
0 – 3
Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
11/4/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14Garten hennerbichler Stadion - ASKÖ Pregarten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pregarten28%
×Draw22%
Wohnbau Dietach50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pregarten
1.35
Wohnbau Dietach
1.89

Wohnbau Dietach creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pregarten
1.59
Wohnbau Dietach
2.16

allows per match

Pregarten
1.61
Wohnbau Dietach
1.11

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par
Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw
50%
Pregarten or Wohnbau Dietach
78%
Draw or Wohnbau Dietach
72%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+
12%
Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals
74%
Pregarten 2+ goals
39%
Pregarten 3+ goals
15%
Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
85%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
56%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)
35%
Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.16 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pregarten scores more
28%
level
22%
Wohnbau Dietach scores more
50%

Wohnbau Dietach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Pregarten 0–3 Wohnbau Dietach

Wohnbau Dietach beat Pregarten 3-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Garten hennerbichler Stadion - ASKÖ Pregarten in Pregarten.