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Pregarten vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pregarten
Pregarten
FT
2 – 1
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
9/4/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4Kornspitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pregarten48%
×Draw23%
Union St. Florian29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pregarten
1.79
Union St. Florian
1.35

Pregarten creates 33% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pregarten
1.59
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Pregarten
1.61
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw
71%
Pregarten or Union St. Florian
77%
Draw or Union St. Florian
52%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+
26%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals
83%
Pregarten 2+ goals
53%
Pregarten 3+ goals
26%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
74%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
39%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)
62%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pregarten scores more
48%
level
23%
Union St. Florian scores more
29%

Pregarten at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Pregarten 2–1 Union St. Florian

Pregarten beat Union St. Florian 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 4, 2020.

The match was played at Kornspitz-Arena in Pregarten.