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Pregarten vs Stadl-Paura — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pregarten
Pregarten
CANC
14:30
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
4/8/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 21Garten hennerbichler Stadion - ASKÖ Pregarten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pregarten93%
×Draw5%
Stadl-Paura2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pregarten
4.79
Stadl-Paura
0.81

Pregarten creates 491% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pregarten
1.59
Stadl-Paura
0.00

allows per match

Pregarten
1.61
Stadl-Paura
8.00

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw
98%
Pregarten or Stadl-Paura
95%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
7%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+
82%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals
99%
Pregarten 2+ goals
94%
Pregarten 3+ goals
82%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
56%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
19%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)
98%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.00, concedes 8.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Stadl-Paura defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 4.79

Stadl-Paura attack 0.00 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Pregarten scores more
93%
level
5%
Stadl-Paura scores more
2%

Pregarten at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pregarten face Stadl-Paura (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with Pregarten hosting Stadl-Paura. Match starts April 8, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pregarten host Stadl-Paura at Garten hennerbichler Stadion - ASKÖ Pregarten.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.