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Pregarten vs Pöttinger Grieskirchen — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pregarten
Pregarten
FT
1 – 1
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
4/1/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 20Garten hennerbichler Stadion - ASKÖ Pregarten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pregarten49%
×Draw22%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pregarten
1.94
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.45

Pregarten creates 34% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pregarten
1.59
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.28

allows per match

Pregarten
1.61
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
2.28

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par
Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Pöttinger Grieskirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw
71%
Pregarten or Pöttinger Grieskirchen
78%
Draw or Pöttinger Grieskirchen
51%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+
28%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals
86%
Pregarten 2+ goals
58%
Pregarten 3+ goals
30%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals
77%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals
42%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)
63%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.28 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pregarten scores more
49%
level
22%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more
29%

Pregarten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pregarten vs Pöttinger Grieskirchen

Pregarten and Pöttinger Grieskirchen drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Garten hennerbichler Stadion - ASKÖ Pregarten in Pregarten.