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Praviano vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Praviano
Praviano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tuilla
Tuilla
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Santa Catalina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Praviano43%
×Draw28%
Tuilla30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praviano
1.32
Tuilla
1.06

Praviano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 110 away

creates per match

Praviano
1.19
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Praviano
0.96
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Praviano+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praviano ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Praviano or draw
70%
Praviano or Tuilla
72%
Draw or Tuilla
57%

Winning margin

Praviano wins by 2+
20%
Tuilla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Praviano 1+ goals
73%
Praviano 2+ goals
38%
Praviano 3+ goals
15%
Tuilla 1+ goals
65%
Tuilla 2+ goals
29%
Tuilla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Praviano (draw refunded)
59%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praviano at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praviano attack 1.19 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Praviano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Praviano scores more
43%
level
28%
Tuilla scores more
30%

Praviano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Praviano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Praviano 2–2 Tuilla

Praviano and Tuilla drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Catalina in Pravia.