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Praviano vs Real Avilés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Praviano
Praviano
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Santa Catalina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Praviano40%
×Draw28%
Real Avilés32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praviano
1.24
Real Avilés
1.07

Praviano creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 28 away

creates per match

Praviano
1.19
Real Avilés
1.18

allows per match

Praviano
0.96
Real Avilés
1.29

finishing

Praviano+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praviano ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Praviano or draw
68%
Praviano or Real Avilés
72%
Draw or Real Avilés
60%

Winning margin

Praviano wins by 2+
18%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Praviano 1+ goals
71%
Praviano 2+ goals
35%
Praviano 3+ goals
13%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
66%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
29%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Praviano (draw refunded)
56%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praviano at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praviano attack 1.19 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Praviano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Praviano scores more
40%
level
28%
Real Avilés scores more
32%

Praviano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Praviano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Praviano vs Real Avilés

Real Avilés beat Praviano 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Catalina in Pravia.