Praviano 0–1 Lenense: Result & Stats

Praviano

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lenense

Lucas Rodríguez 45' (pen)

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Santa Catalina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Praviano51%

×Draw27%

Lenense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PravianoExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.86

Praviano

1.45

Lenense

0.86

Praviano creates 69% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 96 away

1.19

creates per match

0.76

0.96

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Praviano

1.19

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Praviano

0.96

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Praviano+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praviano ↓

Lenense →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Praviano or draw

78%

Praviano or Lenense

73%

Draw or Lenense

49%

Winning margin

Praviano wins by 2+

25%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

Praviano 1+ goals

77%

Praviano 2+ goals

42%

Praviano 3+ goals

18%

Lenense 1+ goals

58%

Lenense 2+ goals

21%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Praviano (draw refunded)

70%

Lenense (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Praviano at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Praviano attack 1.19 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lenense attack 0.76 + Praviano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Praviano scores more

51%

level

27%

Lenense scores more

22%

Praviano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Praviano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Lucas RodríguezPenalty

46'

Sergio Beberide← Diego Pereira

46'

Javi Gutiérrez← Gabriel Ajuchi

46'

Juan Menéndez← Alvaro Gabancho

56'

Jandro← Berto Fernández

68'

Alejandro Abril← Monasterio

68'

Borja Sierra← Antonio García

79'

Pablo Coutado← Diego García

82'

Efren Muñiz← José Luis

Praviano

Lenense

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Rodriguez

46'▲Sergio Beberide←▼Diego Pereira

46'▲Javi Gutiérrez←▼Gabriel Ajuchi

46'▲Juan Menéndez←▼Alvaro Gabancho

82'▲Efren Muñiz←▼José Luis

Praviano substitutes

BeberideGutiérrezMenéndezMuñiz

Manager: Manolo Simón

56'▲Jandro←▼Berto Fernández

68'▲Alejandro Abril←▼Monasterio

68'▲Borja Sierra←▼Antonio García

79'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Diego García

Lenense substitutes

JandroAbrilSierraCoutado