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Pratzerthal-Redange vs Hosingen — Cup 2020

Pratzerthal-Redange
Pratzerthal-Redange
FT
2 – 0
Hosingen
Hosingen
9/11/2022CupCup · 1st RoundStade Emile Schlesser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pratzerthal-Redange35%
×Draw21%
Hosingen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pratzerthal-Redange
1.93
Hosingen
2.17

Hosingen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pratzerthal-Redange
1.60
Hosingen
0.75

allows per match

Pratzerthal-Redange
3.60
Hosingen
2.25

finishing

Pratzerthal-Redange+0.00on par
Hosingen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pratzerthal-Redange ↓

Hosingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Pratzerthal-Redange or draw
56%
Pratzerthal-Redange or Hosingen
79%
Draw or Hosingen
65%

Winning margin

Pratzerthal-Redange wins by 2+
19%
Hosingen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Pratzerthal-Redange 1+ goals
85%
Pratzerthal-Redange 2+ goals
57%
Pratzerthal-Redange 3+ goals
30%
Hosingen 1+ goals
89%
Hosingen 2+ goals
64%
Hosingen 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Pratzerthal-Redange (draw refunded)
44%
Hosingen (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pratzerthal-Redange at home — creates 1.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Hosingen away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pratzerthal-Redange attack 1.60 + Hosingen defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hosingen attack 0.75 + Pratzerthal-Redange defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pratzerthal-Redange scores more
35%
level
21%
Hosingen scores more
44%

Hosingen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hosingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pratzerthal-Redange vs Hosingen

Pratzerthal-Redange beat Hosingen 2-0 in Cup on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Emile Schlesser in Préizerdaul.