Pratzerthal-Redange 2–4 Atert Bissen

Pratzerthal-Redange

2 – 4

Atert Bissen

9/9/2023

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain An Der Seitert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pratzerthal-Redange15%

×Draw14%

Atert Bissen71%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pratzerthal-RedangeExpected goals in this matchAtert Bissen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

3.45

Pratzerthal-Redange

1.58

Atert Bissen

3.45

Atert Bissen creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

3.29

3.60

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Pratzerthal-Redange

1.60

Atert Bissen

3.29

allows per match

Pratzerthal-Redange

3.60

Atert Bissen

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pratzerthal-Redange+0.00on par

Atert Bissen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pratzerthal-Redange ↓

Atert Bissen →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Pratzerthal-Redange or draw

29%

Pratzerthal-Redange or Atert Bissen

86%

Draw or Atert Bissen

85%

Winning margin

Pratzerthal-Redange wins by 2+

Atert Bissen wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Pratzerthal-Redange 1+ goals

79%

Pratzerthal-Redange 2+ goals

47%

Pratzerthal-Redange 3+ goals

21%

Atert Bissen 1+ goals

97%

Atert Bissen 2+ goals

85%

Atert Bissen 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Pratzerthal-Redange (draw refunded)

17%

Atert Bissen (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pratzerthal-Redange at home — creates 1.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Atert Bissen away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pratzerthal-Redange attack 1.60 + Atert Bissen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atert Bissen attack 3.29 + Pratzerthal-Redange defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Pratzerthal-Redange scores more

15%

level

14%

Atert Bissen scores more

71%

Atert Bissen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Atert Bissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff