Prat 0–0 Vilassar Mar: Result & Stats

Prat

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vilassar Mar

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat36%

×Draw30%

Vilassar Mar35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.06

Prat

1.08

Vilassar Mar

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 109 away

0.97

creates per match

0.92

1.21

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Prat

0.97

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Prat

1.21

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Prat or draw

65%

Prat or Vilassar Mar

70%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

64%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

14%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

66%

Prat 2+ goals

29%

Prat 3+ goals

10%

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

65%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

29%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

51%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Prat scores more

36%

level

30%

Vilassar Mar scores more

35%

Prat at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Prat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff