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Prat vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Prat
Prat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
9/24/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat36%
×Draw28%
Pobla Mafumet35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prat
1.16
Pobla Mafumet
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

creates per match

Prat
0.97
Pobla Mafumet
1.07

allows per match

Prat
1.21
Pobla Mafumet
1.34

finishing

Prat+0.00on par
Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

Pobla Mafumet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Prat or draw
65%
Prat or Pobla Mafumet
72%
Draw or Pobla Mafumet
64%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+
15%
Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals
69%
Prat 2+ goals
32%
Prat 3+ goals
11%
Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
68%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
32%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)
51%
Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Prat scores more
36%
level
28%
Pobla Mafumet scores more
35%

Prat at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Prat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Prat 1–2 Pobla Mafumet

Pobla Mafumet beat Prat 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sagnier in El Prat de Llobregat.