Prat 0–0 Mollerussa: Result & Stats

Prat

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mollerussa

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat39%

×Draw28%

Mollerussa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchMollerussa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.13

Prat

1.26

Mollerussa

1.13

Prat creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

0.97

creates per match

1.04

1.21

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Prat

0.97

Mollerussa

1.04

allows per match

Prat

1.21

Mollerussa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

Mollerussa →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Prat or draw

67%

Prat or Mollerussa

72%

Draw or Mollerussa

61%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

17%

Mollerussa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

72%

Prat 2+ goals

36%

Prat 3+ goals

13%

Mollerussa 1+ goals

68%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

31%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

54%

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Mollerussa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + Mollerussa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mollerussa attack 1.04 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Prat scores more

39%

level

28%

Mollerussa scores more

33%

Prat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Prat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff