Prat 0–2 L'Hospitalet: Result & Stats

Prat

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

L'Hospitalet

Álvaro Rivero 19'

Lluis Estebe 10'

4/18/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 31Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat31%

×Draw27%

L'Hospitalet42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchL'Hospitalet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.36

Prat

1.12

L'Hospitalet

1.36

L'Hospitalet creates 21% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 95 away

0.97

creates per match

1.51

1.21

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Prat

0.97

L'Hospitalet

1.51

allows per match

Prat

1.21

L'Hospitalet

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

L'Hospitalet →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Prat or draw

58%

Prat or L'Hospitalet

73%

Draw or L'Hospitalet

69%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

12%

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

67%

Prat 2+ goals

31%

Prat 3+ goals

10%

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

74%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

39%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

42%

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Prat scores more

31%

level

27%

L'Hospitalet scores more

42%

L'Hospitalet at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Lluis Estebe

19'

Álvaro Rivero

58'

Víctor Álvarez← Adán Jesús

58'

Pol Ballesteros← Álvaro Rivero

60'

Lamelas← A. Amhot

60'

Rayan Zinebi← Miguel Fernández

70'

Miguel Lorente← Moli

77'

Sehou Sarr← Sanku Jabbie

77'

Josep Serrano← Mamau

85'

Álex Sánchez← Julen Álvarez

85'

Sergi Rosanas← Guillem Corominas

86'

Lucas Pariente← Lluis Estebe

Prat

L'Hospitalet

▼

⚽

▼

Estebe

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

60'▲Lamelas←▼A. Amhot

60'▲Rayan Zinebi←▼Miguel Fernández

70'▲Miguel Lorente←▼Moli

85'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Julen Álvarez

85'▲Sergi Rosanas←▼Guillem Corominas

Prat substitutes

LamelasZinebiLorenteSánchezRosanas

Manager: Jaume Delgado

58'▲Víctor Álvarez←▼Adán Jesús

58'▲Pol Ballesteros←▼Álvaro Rivero

77'▲Sehou Sarr←▼Sanku Jabbie

77'▲Josep Serrano←▼Mamau

86'▲Lucas Pariente←▼Lluis Estebe

L'Hospitalet substitutes

ÁlvarezBallesterosSarrSerranoPariente

Match Recap: Prat vs L'Hospitalet

L'Hospitalet beat Prat 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 18, 2025.

Goals: Lluis Estebe (10'), Álvaro Rivero (19').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sagnier in El Prat de Llobregat.

Prat vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Prat vs L'Hospitalet