Prat 4–1 Grama: Result & Stats

Prat

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Grama

Ferrán Sarsanedas 90+3'

Valentín Merchán 72'

A. Kerobyan 65'

Lamelas 36'

Oumar Bah 28'

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat36%

×Draw27%

Grama37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchGrama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

Prat

1.25

Grama

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 95 away

0.97

creates per match

1.34

1.21

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Prat

0.97

Grama

1.34

allows per match

Prat

1.21

Grama

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

Grama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

Grama →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Prat or draw

63%

Prat or Grama

73%

Draw or Grama

64%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

16%

Grama wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

71%

Prat 2+ goals

36%

Prat 3+ goals

13%

Grama 1+ goals

72%

Grama 2+ goals

36%

Grama 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

49%

Grama (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Grama away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + Grama defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Grama attack 1.34 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Prat scores more

36%

level

27%

Grama scores more

37%

Grama at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Oumar Bah

36'

Lamelas

53'

Iván Julián← Juanca Oliver

62'

A. Kerobyan← Miki Puerto

62'

Yusef Lasgaa← Izan Maldonado

65'

A. Kerobyan

72'

Pol Sánchez← Alberto Padilla

72'

Valentín Merchán

80'

Isaac Padilla← Lamelas

81'

Ñito Martín← Pau Rosales

83'

Javier García← Miguel Fernández

83'

Jordi Buyreu← Guillem Corominas

90+3'

Ferrán Sarsanedas

Prat

Grama

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

62'▲A. Kerobyan←▼Miki Puerto

62'▲Yusef Lasgaa←▼Izan Maldonado

80'▲Isaac Padilla←▼Lamelas

83'▲Javier García←▼Miguel Fernández

83'▲Jordi Buyreu←▼Guillem Corominas

Prat substitutes

KerobyanLasgaaPadillaGarcíaBuyreu

Manager: José Solivelles

53'▲Iván Julián←▼Juanca Oliver

72'▲Pol Sánchez←▼Alberto Padilla

81'▲Ñito Martín←▼Pau Rosales

Grama substitutes

JuliánSánchezMartín

Match Recap: Prat vs Grama

Prat beat Grama 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 18, 2024.

Goals: Oumar Bah (28'), Lamelas (36'), A. Kerobyan (65'), Valentín Merchán (72'), Ferrán Sarsanedas (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sagnier in El Prat de Llobregat.

Prat vs Grama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Prat vs Grama