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Praiense vs Sporting CP B — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Praiense
Praiense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
1/24/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 13Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Praiense38%
×Draw38%
Sporting CP B24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
0.82
Sporting CP B
0.59

Praiense creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Praiense
1.55
Sporting CP B
0.73

allows per match

Praiense
0.45
Sporting CP B
0.09

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–114%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
41%59%2.5
17%83%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
76%
Praiense or Sporting CP B
62%
Draw or Sporting CP B
62%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
13%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
56%
Praiense 2+ goals
20%
Praiense 3+ goals
5%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
45%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
12%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
61%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.73, concedes 0.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 1.55 + Sporting CP B defence 0.09 → ÷2 → 0.82

Sporting CP B attack 0.73 + Praiense defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Praiense scores more
38%
level
38%
Sporting CP B scores more
24%

Praiense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Praiense 0–0 Sporting CP B

Praiense and Sporting CP B drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória in Praia da Vitória, Açores.