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Praiense vs Pinhalnovense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Praiense
Praiense
FT
5 – 1
Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
9/30/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória (Praia da Vitória)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Praiense67%
×Draw18%
Pinhalnovense16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
2.50
Pinhalnovense
1.13

Praiense creates 121% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Praiense
3.00
Pinhalnovense
1.75

allows per match

Praiense
0.50
Pinhalnovense
2.00

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Pinhalnovense+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Pinhalnovense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
84%
Praiense or Pinhalnovense
82%
Draw or Pinhalnovense
33%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
45%
Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
92%
Praiense 2+ goals
71%
Praiense 3+ goals
45%
Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
68%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
31%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
81%
Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Pinhalnovense away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 3.00 + Pinhalnovense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Pinhalnovense attack 1.75 + Praiense defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Praiense scores more
67%
level
18%
Pinhalnovense scores more
16%

Praiense at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Praiense 5–1 Pinhalnovense

Praiense beat Pinhalnovense 5-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória (Praia da Vitória).