Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Praiense vs Olímpico do Montijo — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Praiense
Praiense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
11/15/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 1Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Praiense65%
×Draw22%
Olímpico do Montijo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
1.77
Olímpico do Montijo
0.64

Praiense creates 177% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Praiense
1.55
Olímpico do Montijo
0.82

allows per match

Praiense
0.45
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
87%
Praiense or Olímpico do Montijo
78%
Draw or Olímpico do Montijo
35%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
38%
Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
83%
Praiense 2+ goals
53%
Praiense 3+ goals
26%
Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
47%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
14%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
83%
Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 1.55 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.82 + Praiense defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Praiense scores more
65%
level
22%
Olímpico do Montijo scores more
13%

Praiense at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Praiense 2–2 Olímpico do Montijo

Praiense and Olímpico do Montijo drew 2-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória in Praia da Vitória, Açores.