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Praiense vs Fabril Barreiro — Taça de Portugal 2018

Praiense
Praiense
FT
4 – 0
Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Praiense68%
×Draw19%
Fabril Barreiro12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
2.10
Fabril Barreiro
0.75

Praiense creates 180% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Praiense
3.00
Fabril Barreiro
1.00

allows per match

Praiense
0.50
Fabril Barreiro
1.20

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Fabril Barreiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
88%
Praiense or Fabril Barreiro
81%
Draw or Fabril Barreiro
32%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
44%
Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
88%
Praiense 2+ goals
62%
Praiense 3+ goals
35%
Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
53%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
17%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
85%
Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Fabril Barreiro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 3.00 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Fabril Barreiro attack 1.00 + Praiense defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Praiense scores more
68%
level
19%
Fabril Barreiro scores more
12%

Praiense at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Praiense 4–0 Fabril Barreiro

Praiense beat Fabril Barreiro 4-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória in Praia da Vitória, Açores.