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Praiense vs Estrela — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Praiense
Praiense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Estrela
Estrela
2/14/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 5Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Praiense43%
×Draw31%
Estrela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
1.14
Estrela
0.81

Praiense creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Praiense
1.55
Estrela
1.18

allows per match

Praiense
0.45
Estrela
0.73

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
74%
Praiense or Estrela
69%
Draw or Estrela
57%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
18%
Estrela wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
68%
Praiense 2+ goals
32%
Praiense 3+ goals
11%
Estrela 1+ goals
56%
Estrela 2+ goals
19%
Estrela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
63%
Estrela (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 1.55 + Estrela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.14

Estrela attack 1.18 + Praiense defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Praiense scores more
43%
level
31%
Estrela scores more
26%

Praiense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Praiense 1–1 Estrela

Praiense and Estrela drew 1-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória in Praia da Vitória, Açores.