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Praiense vs Belenenses II — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Praiense
Praiense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Belenenses II
Belenenses II
4/11/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 22Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Praiense58%
×Draw27%
Belenenses II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
1.46
Belenenses II
0.59

Praiense creates 147% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Praiense
1.55
Belenenses II
0.73

allows per match

Praiense
0.45
Belenenses II
1.36

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Belenenses II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
85%
Praiense or Belenenses II
73%
Draw or Belenenses II
42%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
30%
Belenenses II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
77%
Praiense 2+ goals
43%
Praiense 3+ goals
18%
Belenenses II 1+ goals
45%
Belenenses II 2+ goals
12%
Belenenses II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
80%
Belenenses II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 1.55 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Praiense defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Praiense scores more
58%
level
27%
Belenenses II scores more
15%

Praiense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Praiense 4 – 0 Belenenses II

Praiense beat Belenenses II 4-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória in Praia da Vitória, Açores.